Wednesday, February 22, 2012

NO trading when market conditions are clear

      If you have a system and you are not trading when you are supposed to trade, the first thing that pops up on my mind is that you are afraid of losing. You need to remember that when you developed the system, created an edge, you know exactly what the market needs to do to help you take advantage of low risk trading opportunities, what is left for you is just to take advantage of it.

      Losses will be around forever, professional traders know this, they know its impossible to win all trades, there is no system that is right 100% of the time. And those traders who look for high accuracy entries, most of the time (if not always) they have a very low risk reward ratio, which is what really help us trade consistently.

Don’t be afraid of losing, even the most famous and profitable traders know that around 80% of their profits come from around 30% of their trades. They are comfortable with their system and they know that in order to become profitable traders, they just need to follow their system, if it was well developed and includes good risk and trade management, probabilities will play in their favor, sooner or later.

I guess these two mistakes have a lot to do with the strategy we are following, we need to feel comfortable with it, and this way we’ll follow it with discipline and get consistent results at the end.

Here is small set of rules that will help you get rid for once and for all of these two mistakes:

  1. Develop/follow a system. First you need to develop an edge, you can use some one else’s, but you need to make sure it fits you and follow it to a 100%. It should include every important aspect of trading such as: how to set entry and exit orders, risk and trade management, position sizing, etc.
  2. Market analysis. At the beginning of your trading day, make and analysis and determine which currency pairs have a clear market condition. The main goal of this step is to determine which currency pairs to trade and on which direction.
  3. Setup. Determine what the market needs to do to make you enter your positions (i.e. the market needs to retrace back to the support level, the indicator reading needs to cross the overbought territory, etc).
  4. Trading Journal. You need to have a record of your trades, when you analyze your trades you’ll notice certain “patterns” about your trading that are difficult to see at simple sight (i.e. most trades around 11:00 an stop me out).
Follow these four steps and you’ll avoid these two costly mistakes.

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